The Idea
Contributed by @philhagspiel | Edited and curated by @philhagspiel
The less we know, the more we overestimate our ability.
The more we know, the more we underestimate our ability.
Finding Truth
Self-Perception
When we are incompetent at something — either a task or a field of knowledge — we, by definition, lack the skills to assess our own ability properly. This can quickly lead us to overestimate our own competence.
In short, we need expertise to recognize how badly we're doing.
In contrast, if we are are really good at something, we tend to believe that others must find it equally easy to learn, understand or do that thing — and hence underestimate our own level of competence.
Additionally, the more we understand about a particular subject, the more we usually see how much we don't understand yet. This makes the 'known unknown' bigger and thus reinforces our underestimation of our competence.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect explains why people might self-assess their competence at similar levels although they are vastly different in actual competence and knowledge.
Understanding this helps us, among others, navigate through a landscape of opinion and public discussion with more nuance and caution.
“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.”
— Confucius
“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”
— Charles Darwin
“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.”
— William Shakespeare
"If you're incompetent, you can't know you're incompetent ... The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."
— David Dunning
Explore
➞ Here's a 5-min. highly insightful animated video about this important effect.
➞ For a thorough overview of the origins and a few more aspects about this effect, visit the Wikipedia article.
Resources
If this idea resonates with you, some of these resources might add value to your life.
Link | NAME | Format | Author |
---|---|---|---|
Predictably Irrational | Book | Dan Ariely | |
Thinking Fast And Slow | Book | Daniel Kahnemann | |
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant | Book | Eric Jorgenson | |
Factfulness | Book | Hans Rosling | |
The Sovereign Individual | Book | James Dale Davidson | |
The Sovereign Individual | Book | James Dale Davidson & Lord William Rees-Mogg | |
VSI: Thinking & Reasoning | Book | Jonathan Evans | |
Everything Is Fucked | Book | Mark Manson | |
The Subtle Art Of Not Giving A Fuck | Book | Mark Manson | |
Antifragility | Book | Nassim Taleb | |
Skin In The Game | Book | Nassim Taleb | |
Fooled By Randomness | Book | Nassim Taleb | |
Principles | Book | Ray Dalio | |
59 Seconds - Think A Little Change A Lot | Book | Richard Wiseman | |
Influence - The Psychology Of Persuasion | Book | Robert B. Cialdini | |
The Great Mental Models (vol. 2) | Book | Shane Parrish | |
The Great Mental Models (vol. 1) | Book | Shane Parrish | |
Enlightenment Now | Book | Steven Pinker | |
21 Lessons For The 21st Century | Book | Yuval Noah Harari | |
Complexity Condensed | Blog | Louis Pereira | |
Mark Manson | Blog | Mark Manson | |
Paul Graham | Blog | Paul Graham | |
philhagspiel | Blog | Philipp Hagspiel | |
Farnam Street | Blog | Shane Parrish | |
Marginal Revolution | Blog | Tyler Cowen | |
Vizi Andrei | Blog | Vizi Andrei | |
Lesswrong | Blog | ||
Edge.org | Blog | ||
Changing Minds | Blog | ||
Untools.co | Blog | ||
Melting Asphalt | Blog | ||
The Systems Thinker | Blog | ||
Modern Wisdom | Podcast | Chris Williamson | |
You Are Not So Smart | Podcast | David McRaney | |
The Portal | Podcast | Eric Weinstein | |
Jolly Swagman Podcast | Podcast | Joe Walker | |
Lex Fridman Podcast | Podcast | Lex Fridman | |
The Knowledge Project | Podcast | Shane Parrish | |
Philosophize This! | Podcast | Stephen West | |
Your Undivided Attention | Podcast | Tristan Harris | |
Conversations With Tyler | Podcast | Tyler Cowen | |
Philosophy For Our Times | Podcast | ||
Podcast | |||
Invisibilia | Podcast | ||
Kurzgesagt | YouTube Channel | ||
TED-ed | YouTube Channel | ||
Crash Course: Statistics | YouTube Channel | ||
3Blue1Brown | YouTube Channel | ||
Quanta Magazine | YouTube Channel | ||
Primer | YouTube Channel | ||
Veritasium | YouTube Channel | ||
Talks at Google | YouTube Channel | ||
Vsauce | YouTube Channel | ||
Brilliant.org | Courses | ||
Joscha Bach | Twitter | ||
Jack Butcher | Twitter | ||
philhagspiel | Twitter | ||
Naval Ravikant | Twitter | ||
Paul Graham | Twitter | ||
Vizi Andrei | Instagram |